Will Chavez Get To The Security Council?

I think we'll probably twist as many arms as we can to try to prevent it. But who knows? Maybe enough countries are so sick of our international bullying that they'll let him in.

When Mr. Chávez called Mr. Bush "the devil himself" before the UN General Assembly last week, his remarks generated giggles, even applause. But can he form an alliance against American power?

The next test of his ambition will come next month, when the General Assembly is to decide if Venezuela will be among the next five countries to hold two-year seats on the United Nations Security Council.

"Chávez wants to be a global player taking a part in the big issues of the day - like Iran's right to a nuclear program - and he realizes the [Council] is the perfect platform for him to play that role," says Michael Shifter, vice president at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.

Although UN diplomats and analysts say that other criteria, including regional ties and economic relations, figure in how countries vote for the coveted Security Council seats, they also acknowledge that the Chávez factor will play a role.

One country that supports Venezuela's campaign is China, which is perhaps not enthralled with the Chávez rhetoric but is lured by the idea of more countries holding its worldview on the Council. China has not been shy about its preference to see greater respect in Security Council deliberations for nation-states' rights, and less attention to individuals' universal rights - ideas implicit in Chávez's discourse.

China also wouldn't mind beefing up the bloc of Security Council countries willing to stand up to the United States, analysts say. Others point out that Venezuela's competition for the open Latin American seat is Guatemala, which has opened diplomatic relations with Taiwan - a move China is keen to discourage.

Some "fence-sitting countries" might be "sympathetic to the notion that some counterweight to American power could be a good thing," says one UN diplomat who asked to remain unnamed because his position in dealing with UN members demands neutrality. "But imagine the pressure that could follow a vote for someone who just called the US president the devil."

Of course the Chávez campaign, joined most publicly by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is not the first time countries have joined to check American power, as some foreign-policy practitioners note.